2027 Ocean Freight Contracts: Record Carrier Profits, Softer Spot Rates and a Shipper Negotiating Playbook

Why are carriers so confident going into 2027 talks?

The third-quarter results season gave carriers plenty to point to. CMA CGM reported net income of US$2.32 billion, up from US$760 million a year earlier, on revenue of US$18.4 billion, up 31.1%. It carried 6.5 million TEU, 5.5% more than a year before, and its average revenue per container rose 30% to US$1,891 per TEU. Hapag-Lloyd's net profit rose to US$999 million from US$172 million. Its average freight rate climbed 28% to US$1,808 per TEU, while volumes were flat at 3.38 million TEU. The company now expects full-year EBITDA of US$4.6–5.0 billion, compared with the US$3.9–4.4 billion it forecast earlier.

The rest of the industry looks similar. Maersk raised its earnings guidance for the third time in early November, Ocean Network Express doubled its full-year profit forecast, HMM reported multi-year highs, and Evergreen's nine-month profit rose 18% to US$2.16 billion. CMA CGM linked the demand to inventory rebuilding, investment in AI infrastructure and data centres, and strong flows of clean-technology goods and electric vehicles, especially from China.

Those results shape the tone of negotiations. "When one looks at contracts that will be closed for 2027, they will be at a higher level than what we have seen in 2026," Hapag-Lloyd chief executive Rolf Habben Jansen told analysts, adding that the bunker component alone would push rates up and that he expected "a fairly significant net increase" overall.

What is the spot market actually doing?

Spot rates are no longer rising. In the week to 13 November, Drewry's World Container Index showed Shanghai–Rotterdam down 3% at US$3,504 per 40ft, while Shanghai–Genoa was flat for a third week at US$4,168. On the transpacific, Freightos reported that planned general rate increases failed to take hold. Prices to the US West Coast were still around peak-season levels, near US$8,200 per FEU.

Carriers are using two tools to stop the slide. The first is new FAK (freight all kinds) levels for late November, mostly US$4,500–5,000 per 40ft for Asia–North Europe and US$5,500–6,600 for Asia–Mediterranean. The second is blank sailings, which take ships out of the schedule. Drewry's Container Capacity Insight counted eight blank sailings for the following week, up from five. Peak season surcharges for the pre-Lunar New Year rush are next. Maersk has announced a US$1,000 per 40ft PSS on Asia–North Europe from early December. Lunar New Year falls on 6 February 2027, eleven days earlier than in 2026, so the pre-holiday surge in Asia–Europe demand starts in December and overlaps with contract talks.

Spot rates matter in a contract negotiation because carriers treat them as the reference point. They want spot prices as high as possible while contract talks run, and shippers want the opposite. That is why December surcharges get so much attention. If they hold, they support the carriers' opening position. If they fade, the shipper has evidence for a lower price.

What could loosen capacity in 2027?

The return to Suez

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini Cooperation has started moving services back to the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Hapag-Lloyd lists five Far East–South Europe loops, one Far East–North Europe loop and two India–Europe connections now using Suez, and the ME1/IOS India–Europe service switched with its first westbound sailing from Salalah on 4 November. Shorter voyages need fewer ships to keep a weekly schedule, so capacity tied up on Cape of Good Hope routings would return to the market. The partners say further moves depend on security, and most North Europe services still go around Africa.

The order book

The Journal of Commerce has noted that the container ship order book is growing fast, and CMA CGM took delivery this quarter of its first 24,000 TEU LNG-powered ships for the Asia–Europe trade. New ships plus shorter routes is the usual recipe for falling rates, and it is the main reason shippers are reluctant to commit at peak prices.

The Strait of Hormuz

The opposite risk sits in the Gulf. Nearly nine months after the US-Iran war began, UK Maritime Trade Operations still estimates Strait of Hormuz traffic at about 65% below pre-conflict levels, with 139 outbound and 169 inbound transits in its latest weekly count and seven tanker attacks in the period. On 14 November Iranian state media reported a tanker on fire after hitting a mine in the eastern part of the strait. Gulf crude exports have recovered to about 82% of pre-war volumes, but refined products remain tight. European diesel is near US$180 a barrel, roughly 77% above pre-war levels, and this feeds directly into bunker surcharges.

What are people searching for?

Google Trends data adds context. Worldwide search interest in "freight rates" peaked in mid-September (an index of 48 on the 90-day scale) and had fallen to about 2 by mid-November. "Container shipping" fell from 63 to 12 over the same period. The top related queries are practical ones: "container freight rates", "sea freight rates", "freight rates today" and "freight rates index". People want a current price they can check. The breakout queries are about energy shipping, such as "US crude oil Asia shipping rates" and "shipping rates impact on oil trade". For the Strait of Hormuz, the fastest-rising queries include "how much oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz" and searches about mine blasts and US Navy demining.

Lower search interest does not mean the market has relaxed. It means the panic has passed and buyers are now pricing. For procurement teams, that is the right time to set contract terms, because carriers have less fresh headline risk to justify a premium.

How should shippers structure 2027 ocean contracts?

If you are new to the mechanics, the Kurums guide to ocean freight rates, spot vs contract and surcharges covers the basics. These are the points to negotiate this season.

1. Index-link the rate, or at least part of it. Tie part of the contract to a published index such as Drewry WCI, SCFI, Xeneta or the Freightos Baltic Index, with a floor and a ceiling. If Suez capacity returns and spot falls, your price falls with it.
2. Add a re-opener trigger. If the chosen index moves by an agreed percentage, say 20–25%, for four consecutive weeks, either side can reopen the rate. It costs little to ask for and gives you protection both ways.
3. Ask for the bunker formula. Habben Jansen said bunker costs alone would push 2027 rates up. Separate base freight from the bunker adjustment factor (BAF) and agree the fuel index, the reference price and how often it updates. Pay for fuel at cost, not as hidden margin.
4. Cap peak season and emergency surcharges. Write down which surcharges apply to contract cargo, the notice period and the maximum. The December PSS round is a good example of what to cap.
5. Make allocations firm. Blank sailings are how carriers manage supply. Agree weekly allocation, what happens when a sailing is cancelled, and penalties or rollover priority if cargo is rolled.
6. Keep a spot share. Many importers contract roughly two-thirds to three-quarters of forecast volume and leave the rest open. In a falling market, the open share brings your average cost down.
7. Plan for inland bottlenecks. The Port of Los Angeles handled more than one million TEU in October for a second month, while rail dwell times for import containers reached over nine days. Check free time and detention and demurrage terms as carefully as the ocean rate.

What about policy risk?

Trade policy is the other variable. The US and China have extended the suspension of reciprocal port fees until 10 January 2027, and the US has postponed its fees on Chinese-built ships until January. After the midterm elections, Democrats will control both houses of Congress from January, and bills that would limit presidential tariff powers are being discussed. Freightos notes that this could cut either way: affordability concerns may restrain tariffs, but a harder legislative environment could push the White House towards executive action on trade. Ask for change-in-law clauses that spell out who pays if a port fee or tariff-related surcharge appears during the contract.

US import volumes are cooling after a long peak. The National Retail Federation counted 2.37 million TEU of loaded imports in September, up 12.6% year on year and the third-busiest month on record. It projects 2.26 million in October and 2.05 million in November, with full-year imports of about 26 million TEU, up 2%. A softer first quarter is the normal pattern, and it supports a cautious approach to commitments.