Air Freight Rates Hit a 2026 High: AI Cargo, Lane Gaps and How to Buy Capacity Before 2027 Tenders

How high are air freight rates right now?

The latest Baltic Exchange figures show the overall Baltic Air Freight Index up 6.6% week on week in early November. Index provider TAC described "a renewed hardening in rates as the market heads into the busiest weeks of traditional peak season", with prices at their highest so far in 2026 and "well above the previous two peak season highs". Outbound Hong Kong rates were up 4.6% on the week and 29.2% year on year. Shanghai was up 5.7% on the week and 21.1% year on year. Frankfurt outbound jumped 9.9% and London 5.6%, with transatlantic lanes rebounding as airlines cut passenger flights for winter.

Xeneta's monthly figures tell the same story. The global air cargo spot rate averaged US$3.11 per kilogram in October, up 29% year on year and 4% on September. Global capacity was flat year on year after a 2% rise in September. Spot rates increased month on month on all ten corridors Xeneta tracks. Europe–North America, at US$2.31/kg, rose the most as winter schedules removed belly space. Southeast Asia–North America stood at US$6.34/kg and Northeast Asia–North America at US$6.21/kg.

Fuel is not the cause this time. IATA's Jet Fuel Price Monitor showed average prices for the week ending 6 November down 6.5% on the week and 7% on the month. Rates are rising because space is short.

Why does the global average mislead?

Henk Venema, who runs global airfreight at DHL Global Forwarding, warned customers not to use the global growth figure as a proxy for their own lane. According to IATA, global air cargo traffic grew 5% in the first eight months of 2026. The lane figures diverge sharply. In August, Asia–North America volumes were up 15% and Asia–Latin America up 23%, while Asia–Europe fell 8%.

Asia to the US: AI servers take the space

Demand for AI infrastructure is the main driver on the transpacific. Xeneta measured chargeable weight from Asia Pacific to North America up 15% year on year in October. DHL estimates that of about 17 million tonnes flown year to date, high-tech cargo accounted for 3 million tonnes and grew 22%. Freighter operators have followed the money and moved capacity from Asia–Europe to Asia–US and Asia–Latin America. Venema expects the pressure to be "particularly concentrated on routes from Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan to the US" and to continue into 2027. Taipei's Taoyuan airport is already working through backlogs caused by Typhoon Champi and AI demand, and forwarders reported delays around Bangkok and at Shenzhen during the APEC summit.

China to Europe: e-commerce drops

Since July the European Union has charged €3 on each low-value item imported into the bloc. WorldACD data show air cargo from China and Hong Kong to Europe down 17% year on year in October. At Frankfurt, imports from China fell 4.3% and from Hong Kong 10.1%, but exports to Asia rose 18.8% and North America traffic grew 10.2%. Fraport credits machinery, high-tech goods and US demand for AI-related products. For European importers of general cargo, Asia–Europe is now the cheaper direction to buy in. Exporters to Asia and the US face a tighter market.

Perishables: the shippers who cannot pay

Perishables exporters have the least room to absorb higher rates. Avianca Cargo chief executive Diogo Elias contrasted customers who ship AI servers "paying whatever" with flower exporters. He cited WorldACD figures showing Latin American yields up around 7–8%, against 24–25% globally. Atlas Air's Martin Drew warned about price elasticity, "where you get to a point where it's just no longer viable to send by air cargo". Cathay Cargo's Fred Ruggiero described the risk of moving Chilean cherries through Miami, Los Angeles or New York to Asia when a harvest slips: without fast, temperature-controlled lift, "you're left with an awful lot of cherry juice".

Why is express moving into air freight?

Express integrators are taking business from traditional forwarders. FedEx reported international airfreight daily pounds up 15% year on year in its latest quarter, a 15-fold rise in aircraft engine moves, and a new contract with an AI data centre customer. DHL said its Express division earned about €100 million extra in the third quarter by carrying more airfreight, helped by its Heavy Weight Express product for pieces up to 1,000 kg and shipments up to 3,000 kg. The end of US de minimis exemptions has pushed online platforms back towards consolidated freight. That frees express freighter space for heavier commercial loads. Canada's Cargojet posted record third-quarter revenue of C$286.5 million, up 30.3%, on charter demand.

For shippers, a 300 kg urgent part may now be cheaper and more reliable through an integrator than through a forwarder's consolidation, especially on tight lanes. Get quotes from both channels.

What does search data say?

Google Trends shows worldwide interest in "air cargo" peaking in mid-September (index 55) and settling around 12 by mid-November. The related queries say more. The top one is "air tracking cargo", and the fastest-rising are searches for airline air waybill prefixes: "157 air cargo tracking" (+150%), "235 air cargo tracking" (+100%), "176 air cargo tracking" (+80%) and "618 air cargo tracking" (+60%). These are the prefixes of Qatar Airways, Turkish Airlines, Emirates and Singapore Airlines respectively. Searches for "Atlas Air cargo tracking" and "Turkish air cargo tracking" are rising too.

So in peak season people are less interested in what air cargo is and more interested in where their shipment is. Many searchers are probably small shippers and consignees using carrier-hub routings through the Gulf and Istanbul. They want visibility. When choosing a forwarder, check what milestone tracking it provides, not only the rate per kilogram.

How should shippers buy air capacity for the rest of peak and into 2027?

For a refresher on pricing mechanics, read the Kurums guide to chargeable weight and air freight costs. The practical steps:

1. Book December capacity now on tight lanes. Vietnam, Thailand and Taiwan to the US are the lanes to secure first. Block space agreements or hard allocations through your forwarder are worth a premium for Black Friday through Christmas.
2. Do not sign 12-month fixed rates in Q4. Xeneta reports many shippers are holding tenders until Q1 or Q2 2027 and expects rates to fall next year. Its chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw, said a 12-month deal priced today would need "so much uncertainty" built in that it would be uncompetitive.
3. Index-link longer deals. If you must commit, tie the rate to a published index such as the Baltic Air Freight Index, TAC or Xeneta, with a fuel adjustment based on a named jet fuel benchmark.
4. Review your density. When capacity is tight, carriers favour dense cargo. Repacking light goods can lower chargeable weight more than a rate discount would.
5. Plan modal shift early. For goods that can wait, sea-air through Dubai or Colombo, or a planned ocean shipment, avoids peak air pricing. Perishables need a fallback plan for harvest delays.
6. Use more than one route. Carrier-hub routings through the Gulf and Istanbul can find space when direct freighters are full. The Kurums map of air cargo hubs and airlines shows the options.