E-Commerce Market Metrics: 12 Numbers to Check Before You Sell in a New Country

Expansion decisions in e-commerce are often made on one number: "the market is worth X billion". It is the least useful number available. Two countries with the same online spend can differ completely in who owns the customer, how checkout works, what a parcel costs and how much of it comes back.

This guide lists twelve market-level metrics that decide whether an entry is profitable, where to find them, and how to turn them into a comparison. It belongs to the Market Metrics section of the Kurums E-Commerce pillar, and it is the outward-looking companion to the store-level KPI guide.

Which market metrics matter before entering a country?

Twelve numbers, in four groups: demand (market size, growth, online share, category share), access (marketplace concentration, mobile share, advertising cost), checkout (payment mix, average order value) and delivery (shipping cost and time, return rate, duty and tax at the border).

How should you read market size and growth?

Market size is the total value of online retail sales in a country in a year. Read it as a range, not a point. EMARKETER, as cited by Shopify, forecasts global retail e-commerce at about US$6.88 trillion in 2026, while another widely quoted estimate puts it near US$5.25 trillion. Both are careful; they count different things.

Before comparing two countries, check three definitions:

• Scope. Does the figure include travel, tickets, food delivery and digital goods, or only physical products?
• Measure. Is it retailer revenue, or gross merchandise value including third-party marketplace sales and tax?
• Currency and inflation. In high-inflation economies, nominal growth of 60% can be flat in real terms. Compare in a hard currency or in order volumes.

Growth rate matters more than size for a new entrant. In a market growing 15% a year, you can win customers without taking them from anyone. In a flat market, every order is someone else's loss and incumbents defend it. EMARKETER expects worldwide growth of about 7% in 2026 and US growth of 7.9%; many emerging markets run at two or three times that in real terms.

What does online share of retail tell you?

Online share is e-commerce sales as a percentage of all retail sales. It measures how established the habit is. Globally it is forecast at about 21.1% for 2026. The United States stood at roughly 17% in mid-2026, China is estimated at close to half of retail, and the United Kingdom above 30% on some measures.

High penetration means shoppers trust online payment and delivery, expect fast shipping and free returns, and are expensive to win because every competitor is already there. Low penetration means cheaper attention and more education: you may have to offer cash on delivery, phone support and local pickup to earn the first order.

The national average hides category gaps. Electronics and fashion go online early; groceries, furniture and pharmacy later. ECDB's category pages for Türkiye, for example, show pet supplies with an online share in the 20 to 25% band against 5 to 10% for health and beauty. Look up your category, not the country.

Why is marketplace concentration the most useful single metric?

Marketplace concentration is the share of online shoppers who use the leading platform. It tells you whether the country is a one-door market, where you must be on a specific marketplace, or an open one where an independent store can find its own traffic.

DHL's 2026 E-Commerce Trends Report, summarised by Lengow, asked shoppers in about thirty countries which marketplace they use. The leader's reach is striking and it is not always the name you expect.

Three practical readings:

• Above about 85%, one platform: enter through it. Budget for its commission, logistics programme and advertising. See top online marketplaces by country.
• Local champion, not a global one: Allegro, bol, Trendyol, Mercado Libre and Shopee each have their own seller rules, languages and fulfilment networks. An Amazon playbook does not transfer.
• Lower concentration (Sweden, Switzerland, parts of the Nordics): specialist retailers and direct brand stores have more room, and comparison sites matter more.

How do payment habits change conversion?

The payment mix is the share of online orders paid by each method: cards, digital wallets, bank transfer, buy now pay later, instalments on credit cards, and cash on delivery. If your checkout does not offer the locally dominant method, a share of shoppers simply leaves, whatever your price.

The patterns are regional and deep-rooted. Bank-transfer schemes dominate in the Netherlands and are strong in Poland. Instalment payments on credit cards are standard in Türkiye and Brazil. Cash on delivery remains material in parts of the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia and Africa. Invoice and pay-later options are familiar in the German-speaking countries and the Nordics, a model explained in buy now, pay later.

Each method carries a cost and a risk. Cash on delivery raises refusal rates at the door, and a refused parcel costs two shipments. Instalments and pay-later carry higher fees. Cards carry chargebacks. Price these into contribution margin before launch, using the method in e-commerce unit economics, and choose a payment provider with local acquiring in the target country; see the Kurums comparison of payment gateways.

What do delivery cost, speed and returns do to the model?

Logistics metrics set the floor on what you can sell. Three matter: the cost of a delivered parcel, the delivery time shoppers consider normal, and the return rate customary in your category.

• Cost per delivered parcel as a percentage of average order value. If a parcel costs 6 and the typical basket in the country is 25, shipping is 24% of revenue before anything else. Low-AOV markets favour local stock and consolidated shipments.
• Expected delivery time. In dense markets with strong local marketplaces, next-day is ordinary. A ten-day cross-border delivery competes only on uniqueness or price.
• Return rate. Fashion in Germany and the Netherlands is known for very high return rates because free returns and pay-after-delivery are entrenched. A 40% return rate turns a 60% gross margin into a marginal business.

Get two quotes from third-party logistics providers in the country, including returns handling, before building the forecast. For carriers and freight estimates, the Kurums lists of shipping software and free freight quote tools are a quick start.

What does the border add in 2026?

The border adds customs duty, import VAT or GST, and clearance cost and time. In 2026 the low-value exemptions that powered direct-from-factory selling were removed in the two largest import markets.

• European Union. Import VAT has applied from the first euro since July 2021, collected through the Import One-Stop Shop for consignments up to €150. From 1 July 2026 the customs duty exemption for parcels up to €150 ended; a flat €3 duty per item category applies as an interim measure until the new customs data hub arrives around 2028.
• United States. The US$800 de minimis duty-free entry ended on 29 August 2025. Small parcels now face duty under the applicable tariff.
• Elsewhere. Thresholds differ widely and change. Check the customs authority's own page for the current figure, and check whether marketplaces are "deemed suppliers" that collect tax on your behalf.

Holding stock inside the destination market removes the per-parcel problem and replaces it with a one-time import, local VAT registration and a fulfilment contract.

How do you turn the twelve metrics into a decision?

Score each candidate country from 1 to 5 on the four groups, weight them for your business, and compare contribution margin per order, not market size. A simple scorecard prevents the loudest opinion in the room from picking the country.

Then run a small test before committing: one marketplace, a short range, stock for eight weeks, and a budget you are prepared to lose. Measure conversion, AOV, return rate and contribution margin against your home market. If the first three are within reach and the fourth is positive, expand the range.

For country-specific starting points, see the guides to Europe's marketplaces and Türkiye's marketplaces. Company stories such as Mercado Livre in Brazil, Flipkart vs Amazon in India and Konga in Nigeria show how differently the same model plays out across markets.

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